Top 4 Fantasy Busts 2023
Excelling in fantasy football requires more than just knowing who to draft. Having insight into who NOT to draft is equally as important. To help you bring your A-game when it comes time to build your draft tiers, Gridiron Goal Post has compiled a list of fantasy busts to avoid in your drafts. While it's crucial to target top-performing players, avoiding those who are injury-prone, underperforming, or part of a crowded position group can be just as valuable.
The last thing you want is for your starting RB to be sucking wind and on the sidelines due to an injury or poor performance. With our expert analysis and insights, you can make informed decisions and craft a winning fantasy football roster. So, let's dive in and discover which players to steer clear of in your 2023 fantasy draft!
Alvin Kamara, Saints RB
Last year wasn’t the greatest for Kamara. In fact, the New Orleans Saints RB hasn’t surpassed 900 yards in a season since 2020. To make matters worse, he scored only six touchdowns in the 2021 and 2022 seasons combined. Those stats are far worse than those in his 2020 season, where he rushed for 932 yards and 16 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the cold streak for Kamara is likely to continue. The Saints picked up endzone shark Jamaal Williams from the Lions this off-season.
I expect Williams to be in a snap-share scenario to start the season. This is bad news for fantasy managers with Kamara on their rosters. By midseason, we will likely see Williams listed as RB1 if he can maintain the same production level he did in Detriot. Last season, Jamaal Williams rushed for over 1000 yards and led the NFL with a staggering 17 rushing touchdowns. That’s enough to put a smile on any fantasy manager’s face. Anything could happen throughout this coming season. However, as of now, it looks like Alvin Kamara will be one of this year’s fantasy busts. I’d steer clear from drafting Kamara in the early rounds. He is a mid-round pick at best.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars WR
Christian Kirk had a solid year in 2022. He amassed over 1,000 yards and finished with eight touchdowns. You are probably thinking, “Hey, Kirk did well last year. Why not pick him up again?” Well, with the new addition of Calvin Ridley from the Atlanta Falcons and the come-up of Zay Jones, Christian Kirk is likely to see a significant dip in his targets. I’m afraid the Jag’s WR core is spread too thin for fantasy purposes.
It would be better to prioritize a wide receiver that will get consistent opportunities. This isn’t to say Kirk will be a complete bust but to think he will be able to keep up with his numbers from last season is a stretch. Even if he can repeat what he did last year, inconsistency was an issue for him. He had eight games where he scored less than nine fantasy points and three games with more than 15 fantasy points.
All in all, if you're looking for a reliable and consistent wide receiver for your fantasy team, it might be best to leave Christian Kirk in the rearview. Of course, if he falls in your draft or is available on the waiver wire, he could be a valuable depth piece or matchup-dependent start but don't expect him to carry your team.
Miles Sanders, Panthers RB
Last season, Miles Sanders ran for 1269 yards. This was the 5th most rushing yards by a running back for the season. While this is no small number, Sanders had a lot of help. The Eagles had one of the best offensive lines in the league. This is part of the reason why the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl: that and the fact they had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. With Sanders now in Carolina, I don’t see him doing nearly as well as he did this past year.
Moreover, Miles Sanders may not be the best option if you are in a PPR league. Last season he only had 20 receptions for 78 yards and no touchdowns. Sanders' limited receiving production decreases his fantasy value in PPR formats compared to other running backs who are more involved in the passing game. Add that to the fact that he may be sharing time with Chuba Hubbard, and I project a dip in numbers for Sanders. Will he be a complete bust? Probably not. Would I take him in the first or second round? No way.
With Sanders now on the Panthers, his situation has changed. The Panthers have a different offensive scheme and a different set of teammates. It remains to be seen how well Sanders will adapt to his new team and how he will be utilized in their game plan. Transitioning to a new system can impact a player's performance, especially in the early stages.
Considering these factors, it might be wise to approach drafting Miles Sanders with caution, especially in the early rounds. While he may not be a total bust, other running backs may offer more consistent and reliable production, making them a more desirable pick.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins QB
Tua is entering his fourth year in the NFL. Last season he threw for 3548 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He accomplished these numbers and still missed four games due to injury. Unfortunately, his injury history remains a significant concern. His concussions throughout the season were gnarly. If he continues to take shots like he did in week four against the Bengals, he won’t last long in the league. After last season people were already saying he should consider retiring due to the potential long-term impact of his injuries. It is undeniable that Tua's concussions last season were concerning and highlighted the physical toll that playing quarterback in the NFL can have on a player's health.
What good is your QB if he is missing games? Not very. Injuries can significantly impact a player's performance and limit their fantasy production. Furthermore, Tua's performance in his first three NFL seasons has been somewhat inconsistent. While he has shown flashes of potential, he has also struggled at times, leading to concerns about his overall development as a starting quarterback.
Considering these factors, it is vital to weigh the risks and rewards when considering Tua as a fantasy quarterback. While he has shown promise and has the potential to put up solid numbers, his injury history and inconsistent performance make him a riskier option compared to more established quarterbacks or those with a more proven track record. It would be prudent to have a backup plan in place or consider drafting a more reliable quarterback option if you select Tua in your fantasy football draft.
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